2030: The Death of the High Street Industry report
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In 2016, Parcelhero issued its highly influential report '2030: The Death of the High Street'. Its findings were so concerning that they were even raised in Parliament. A decade on, how do its predictions stand up? Revisit this ground-breaking report to find out for yourself, and don’t miss our new report ‘2030: The High Street Fights Back’, also available now as an e-book.
(This is a report from our archives. All information and figures accurate as of summer 2016)
1. Vanishing stores:
Between 2020 and 2030 half of the UK’s existing shop premises will have disappeared. In 1950 there were 600,000 stores in the UK, in 2012 there were 290,000 and just 220,000 will survive by 2020 says The Centre for Retail Research. With home deliveries increasing exponentially, the decade from 2020 to 2030 will see a further 100,000 stores close if this trend continues: leaving just 120,000 shops on our high street.
2. E-commerce conquers all:
By 2030 e-commerce will account for around 40% of all UK retail sales.
3. From High Street to Memory Lane:
Many large supermarkets, and the majority of high street department stores, building societies, book shops, fashion stores, newsagents, Post Offices and toy shops will be a thing of the past: losing out to the growth of e-commerce giants such as Amazon. Nail bars, charity shops, luxury flats and pop up 3D printing stores will occupy some of these empty buildings.
4. Crumbling Department Stores:
Department stores have crumbled under the attack of e-commerce; Alders and BHS will not be the only failures. Of the surviving 200 large businesses, 48 business are already labelled in danger and 53 made a loss last year. How long can the sector continue?
5. Fashion victims:
From Austin Reed to Viyella, clothing stores have rapidly disappeared from shop fronts, with Banana Republic set to slip from our High Streets next. In 2013 alone there was a net loss of 264 fashion stores from our High Street. The online fashion industry could reach £36.2bn by 2030: 63% of the market compared to today’s 21%. Online retailers are stripping the shirt from the back of high street clothing stores.
6. Bad News travels fast:
Recent figures reveal more than one local newsagent has been closing every day. Entire chains such as John Menzies and Forbuoys have also disappeared. Retail analysts claim even WH Smith ‘cannot be saved by colouring books alone’.
7. Don’t bank on it:
As we move to online banking around 9,000 bank and building society branches have been closed since 1989 – and more closures are planned. Names you’ll no longer see on the High Street frontages include the Midland, Abbey National, Bradford & Bingley, The Woolwich, and Alliance & Leicester (some brands survive as bank in-house mortgages).